“Probability on Trial: Making Sense of Arguments and Stories”

“Probability on Trial: Making Sense of Arguments and Stories” is the first book-length philosophical examination of legal probabilism, an interdisciplinary research program that aims to harness the powers of probability to analyze, model and improve the evaluation of evidence and the process of decision-making in trial proceedings. The book examines, from a probabilistic perspective, how arguments and stories guide the interpretation of the evidence presented at trial. This examination then serves to articulate a theory of legal standards of decision that can limit errors and ensure that errors do not disproportionately burden certain social groups. “Probability on Trial” aims to inspire reformers who seek a more transparent, accurate and fair justice system.