Probability on Trial: Making Sense of Arguments and Stories

"Probability on Trial: Making Sense of Arguments and Stories" is a book-length philosophical examination of legal probabilism, a research program that aims to harness the powers of probability to analyze, model and improve the evaluation of evidence and the process of decision-making in trial proceedings. "Probability on Trial" will address three central questions: (1) Can the evidence presented at trial be weighed and assessed using probability theory? (2) Can standards of decision such as ‘proof beyond a reasonable doubt’ be defined using the mathematical and statistical language of probability? (3) Does the deployment of probability theory help to improve the accuracy and fairness of trial decisions? The book argues that the answer to these questions is, by and large, affirmative. If probability played a more prominent role, trials would be more rigorous, accurate, and fair.